In a striking geopolitical shift, Israel has reportedly urged the United States to support the continued presence of Russian military bases in Syria as a counterbalance to Turkey’s expanding influence in the region.
This development, detailed in a February 28, 2025, report by Reuters, comes after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, a turning point that has reshaped Syria’s power structure and intensified Israel’s security concerns.
Israel’s Strategic Support for Russian Military Presence
According to sources familiar with the discussions, Israeli officials have engaged with senior U.S. counterparts in Washington and congressional representatives in Israel, advocating for a policy that maintains Russia’s naval facility at Tartus and airbase at Hmeimim. The rationale behind this stance is to prevent Turkey from consolidating control over post-Assad Syria, a scenario that Israel views as detrimental to regional stability.
Israel has long preferred a weak, decentralised Syria to safeguard its security. The Reuters report suggests that Israeli lobbying efforts in the U.S. are focused on ensuring Russia’s military footprint remains intact to counterbalance Turkey’s growing role in the region.
Strategic Importance of Russian Military Bases
Russia’s military presence in Syria, established in 2015 to support the Assad regime, revolves around two critical installations:
Tartus Naval Base
The Tartus Naval Base, Russia’s only warm-water port outside the Black Sea, can accommodate 11 warships, including guided-missile frigates and submarines. The base facilitates the movement of over 500,000 tonnes of supplies annually and enables Moscow to project power across the eastern Mediterranean.
Hmeimim Airbase
Located near Latakia, this facility houses a formidable aviation contingent, including Su-35 fighters, Su-34 bombers, and Mi-24 attack helicopters. With a 3,000-metre runway, fortified aircraft shelters, and S-400 air defense systems, HMEIM has historically allowed Russia to conduct extensive air operations in Syria.
Israel’s Concerns Over Turkey’s Expanding Role
Turkey has become a major player in post-Assad Syria. It backs the interim government made of opposition figures and Islamists. Israeli officials worry about Ankara’s rising influence across Syria. They fear Syria could turn into a haven for hostile groups like Hamas. Turkey has previously supported Hamas diplomatically, which fuels these concerns. Aaron Lund, a Syria expert, explained Israel’s primary fear.
He said Turkey might build an Islamist order in Syria. That could give Hamas and militants a launchpad near Israel. Turkey currently has more than 10,000 troops stationed in northern Syria. Its military outposts date back to the 2016 Euphrates Shield operation. Israel sees this presence as a serious threat to its security. It is pushing for a counterbalance through Russian military bases nearby.
High-Level Israeli Lobbying in Washington
Israeli officials formally conveyed their position to the U.S. through high-level meetings in February 2025, supplementing their diplomatic efforts with a white paper circulated among American policymakers. Israel’s argument hinges on the idea that Russia’s continued presence in Syria could serve as a stabiliser against Turkish hegemony.
This shift in policy marks a departure from Israel’s previous criticism of Russia’s role in Syria. Although Israel once feared Russian air defences, it now sees Moscow’s limited presence as a better option. Meanwhile, Turkey’s growing influence in Syria has become a bigger concern for Israeli defense planners.
Israel therefore favours Russia’s diminished presence over Turkey’s unbridled growth close to its northern border. In March 2025, Dr Hude Eilam expressed that Israel views a reduced Russian footprint as a less significant threat. He made the remark in a Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security commentary on shifting regional dynamics.
Challenges to Russia’s Continued Presence
Despite Israel’s backing, Russia faces mounting challenges in maintaining its Syrian bases. The ongoing war in Ukraine has strained Moscow’s resources, while Western sanctions have weakened its economy. Nevertheless, as of March 2025, both Tartus and Hmeimim remain operational:
- Tartus continues to support a fleet that includes two Kilo-class submarines and a Gepard-class frigate, supplied via maritime routes from Sevastopol.
- HMEIM retains a squadron of Su-24 bombers and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, providing Moscow with leverage in negotiations with Syria’s new leadership.
Russian officials have affirmed their commitment to maintaining these bases. “Moscow isn’t leaving Syria anytime soon—these bases are its last strategic foothold in the Middle East,” said General Viktor Bondarev, former commander of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, in a January 2025 statement to TASS.
Turkey’s Response and U.S. Considerations
Turkey has framed its involvement in Syria as a stabilising mission aimed at preventing chaos and countering Kurdish separatism. Israeli intelligence reports, released in February 2025, warn that Turkey may arm groups hostile to Israel. “These Turkish ties pose a direct threat,” said an Israeli defense official to The Times of Israel, requesting anonymity.
Simultaneously, the U.S. must delicately navigate the shifting power dynamics in Syria. The Biden administration has shown little interest in expanding its role in Syria’s messy conflict. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated in December 2024 that U.S. troops continue to concentrate solely on combating ISIS. Still, Israel’s quiet lobbying in Washington has gained some traction among American lawmakers. Senator Lindsey Graham said in March 2025, “If Russian bases limit Turkey, it’s a tradeoff worth making.”
The Future of Syria’s Geopolitical Landscape
Israel’s advocacy for Russia’s continued presence in Syria underscores a rare convergence of interests between Tel Aviv and Moscow against Turkey, a NATO member. While some critics argue that supporting Russian bases could weaken global efforts to isolate Moscow, Israeli officials see Turkey as a more urgent threat.
Consequently, they believe countering Ankara’s growing presence in Syria takes precedence over isolating Russia. As Syria remains fragmented in the aftermath of Assad’s fall, the struggle for regional influence shows no sign of easing.
Although Russia’s military bases reflect its waning power, they still function as important bargaining tools in ongoing diplomatic manoeuvres. Turkey’s rising ambitions make it a key player, and Israel sees a chance to influence Syria’s future. Israel is carefully navigating this complex situation to shift the regional balance in its favour.
“A weak Syria with Russia is better than a strong one under Turkey,” Eilam concluded, explaining Israel’s strategy. As Washington considers its next move, the stakes remain high for Syria and the wider Middle East. The outcome could reshape alliances and power dynamics across the entire region for years to come.
References
- Reuters (www.reuters.com)
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (www.jiss.org.il)
- Century International (www.centuryinternational.org)
- TASS (www.tass.com)
- The Times of Israel (www.timesofisrael.com)
- Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (www.syriahr.com)
