Three Indian aircraft crash; Pakistan claims five shot down

Three Indian fighter jets crashed in the troubled region of Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday, hours after Indian airstrikes on what it termed as terrorist targets in Pakistan across the border, four local government officials told Reuters. In a dramatic counterclaim, Pakistan’s military claimed its troops had downed five Indian aircraft, a claim Indian officials have yet to confirm.

Social media reports on X, which were based on open-source intelligence [OSINT], indicated that French-language insignia was found on the wreckage of the crashed aircraft, leading to speculation that the aircraft might be India’s French-manufactured Rafale or Mirage 2000 fighter jets; however, no official report has confirmed these models.

The attack is a perilous escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, triggering concerns about a wider conflict in a region that has long been bedeviled by border conflicts. The crashes came after India’s military strike on nine locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in retaliation for a terror strike on April 22 in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, that killed 26 tourists, 25 of them Indian citizens and one Nepalese.

CNN report

India blamed the attack on Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based militant group accused of sheltering terrorists on Pakistani soil. Pakistan claimed it downed five Indian planes—three Rafales, one MiG-29, and one Su-30—according to a CNN report.

Pakistan’s leaders called the Indian bombing raids an “act of war” and threatened strong retaliation. India has not confirmed how many planes were lost or how they were downed in the conflict.

A senior Indian official told Reuters one jet crashed in Indian-held Kashmir, and its pilot was hospitalized. The crisis began after the Pahalgam attack, the deadliest Indian terror incident since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

In response, Prime Minister Modi’s government struck back with diplomatic, military, and economic measures. India closed borders, banned imports from Pakistan, and expelled Pakistani diplomats as part of its retaliation.

Pakistan reacted by conducting missile drills and naval exercises in the Arabian Sea. Fighting along the Line of Control (LoC), Kashmir’s de facto border, also intensified sharply.

India deployed its aircraft carrier INS Vikrant to the Arabian Sea as tensions rapidly escalated. Pakistan mobilized air and ground forces to counter India’s military moves in the region.

According to The Economic Times, the Indian Air Force began full-scale drills near the Pakistan border on Wednesday. Rafale, Mirage 2000, and Su-30 fighter jets participated in the exercises, possibly leading to the aerial confrontations.

So far, no official statement explains the plane crashes or what exactly triggered the conflict. Some suggest Pakistani air defenses or fighter jets may be responsible, but no confirmed evidence supports these claims.

India’s air force ranks fourth globally

Social media posts on X and other platforms continue to spread unverified information and theories. To understand the events, it is necessary to review the aircraft capabilities, although facts are still limited at this time.

India’s air force ranks fourth globally, with over 2,200 total aircraft, including 513 advanced fighter jets. In contrast, Pakistan operates around 1,399 aircraft with a fighter fleet of 328 planes, giving India a numerical edge.

India relies heavily on French-made Mirage 2000 and Rafale jets for air dominance and strike missions. The Rafale, introduced in 2020, is a 4.5-generation multirole fighter with state-of-the-art combat systems. Its AESA radar and SPECTRA electronic warfare suite provide strong protection against radar-based missile threats.

Its weapons include the Meteor, a beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile with a range greater than 120 miles, and the MICA missile for close combat. Rafale can also carry SCALP cruise missiles for deep ground attack. India possesses 36 Rafales, and on April 28, there was a $7.5 billion agreement signed for 26 Rafale Marine variants for its navy, according to several OSINT.

The stealth feature and jamming feature of the jet make it a formidable platform, but its high price of $288 million per aircraft has raised questions about its value compared to stealth fighters such as the U.S. F-35.

Despite being older, the Mirage 2000 remains a workhorse of the Indian Air Force, with approximately 50 aircraft currently in service. Upgraded to the Mirage 2000-5 standard, it has improved avionics, a new radar, and electronic countermeasures.

The aircraft has not just MICA missiles but also guided bombs like the Israeli Spice bomb, which was effectively used in the 2019 Balakot airstrike against a terror camp in Pakistan.

Chinese HQ-9

The Mirage 2000 is highly maneuverable, performs well at low altitudes, and is capable of operating in the hilly terrain of Kashmir; however, its old airframe lacks the advanced stealth and sensor fusion abilities found in the Rafale.

If Pakistan’s version is accurate, both aircraft are capable of evading existing air defenses; it is unclear how their downing occurred. Pakistan’s air defense is based on a combination of systems, such as the Chinese HQ-9, a surface-to-air, long-range missile system similar to Russia’s S-300 that has a 125-mile range.

The HQ-9 has the capability of targeting multiple objects at high altitudes but has a problem with low-flying aircraft or aircraft carrying sophisticated jamming, such as the Rafale. Pakistan has also deployed shorter-range systems such as the French Crotale and Swedish RBS-70, which are less effective against high-speed aircraft. Recent intelligence suggests that Pakistan might have acquired the Chinese HQ-16 or Turkish Hisar systems, despite not having deployed them.

Despite their capabilities, engaging aircraft with advanced electronic countermeasures presents challenges. This means that a successful engagement would require precise coordination and favorable conditions.

Although unverified, this claim pertains to the electronic warfare capabilities of the J-10C, which may potentially surpass the SPECTRA system found in the Rafale. Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder, a lighter multirole fighter jointly developed with China, is equipped with SD-10 missiles and optimized for low-cost operations, but it does not have the J-10C’s sophisticated sensors.

The F-16 Block 52, provided by America and equipped with AIM-120C AMRAAM missiles, is still an effective platform, even if it is less capable than the Rafale in long-range combat due to outdated radar technology.

The historical context of the event serves to highlight its significance. India and Pakistan have been engaged in several skirmishes over Kashmir since their partition in 1947, including total wars in 1947, 1965, and 1971, and a limited war in the Kargil War.

The 2019 Balakot airstrike set the precedent for aerial battles when Indian Mirage 2000s attacked a terrorist camp in Pakistan, followed by a dogfight in which Pakistan downed an Indian MiG-21. Since then, the two nations have beefed up their arsenals, with India bolstering its air force with Rafales and Pakistan acquiring J-10Cs, increasing the stakes of any conflict.

The two countries’ nuclear stockpiles—India with a projected 160 warheads and Pakistan with around 170, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates—have enormous consequences; thus, the de-escalation process becomes significant.

Prime Minister Modi

The current buildup stems from a complex mix of local grievances and regional power struggles across South Asia. In India, Prime Minister Modi faces pressure to act tough on terrorism, especially after the deadly Pahalgam attack.

Public anger has soared, pushing the government toward strong military responses against perceived threats from Pakistan. India’s 2019 decision to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy worsened the already strained relationship with Pakistan.

Pakistan views that move as a clear provocation and violation of international understanding. Inside Pakistan, political instability and a struggling economy have encouraged leaders to boost nationalism and anti-India sentiment.

The Pakistani government attempts to win over the public and political establishment at home by portraying itself as tough on India. Tensions also rise over water, as India threatens to limit Pakistan’s supply under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty.

Pakistan sees this threat as existential, adding urgency to its diplomatic and military responses. Global politics plays a giant role. India strengthens defense ties with the U.S., Japan, Australia, France, Russia, and Israel.

Pakistan leans heavily on China for weapons, funding, and support through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Beijing supplies Pakistan with JF-17 and J-10C fighters, enhancing its strike capabilities and diplomatic standing.

U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen

Turkey and Iran offer additional political support, while Russia remains a cautious partner through exercises and statements. This rising conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors has increasingly alarmed the international community.

U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen urged restraint, warning about escalation between India and Pakistan. Social media platform X shows highly polarized narratives, with both sides claiming victories and criticizing the other.

Many posts are unverified or misleading, adding confusion and fueling propaganda from both nations. Al Jazeera reported that Pakistan closed airspace over Lahore and shut religious schools in Kashmir.

These actions suggest fears of further attacks or an all-out war breaking out soon. A reported plane crash has become a flashpoint, potentially weakening India’s air strength at a critical time.

If true, Pakistan’s claims of downing Indian jets could boost morale and strengthen its military posture. However, unverified reports and conflicting stories cloud the situation, making facts difficult to trust.

Amid this fog, restraint becomes vital, as small errors can lead to major escalation. This conflict’s impact goes beyond South Asia, involving global powers like China, the U.S., and Russia.

Their presence raises the risk of the war spilling into a global confrontation no one wants. Diplomacy remains the only real way to prevent a catastrophic outcome between these two bitter rivals.

Nonetheless, mistrust and decades of hostility make diplomatic success increasingly difficult. Now, the world watches to see if this remains a short clash—or ignites something far worse.

References

• Reuters—Indian jets crash after strikes in Pakistan
• CNN—Pakistan claims to have shot down five Indian aircraft
• Economic Times—Indian Air Force to hold exercises along Pakistan border
• Bulgarian Military—India signs $7.5B deal for Rafale Marine jets
• Global Firepower Index 2025—Air power ranking
• Al Jazeera—Rising tensions in Kashmir amid airspace closures
• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute—Nuclear stockpiles
• Jeanne Shaheen—U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Statement