U.S. Falling Behind China in Submarine Production DEFENSE NEWS TODAY

The growing gap between the U.S. and China in submarine production is becoming a critical issue for U.S. naval dominance. As tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, maintaining a technological and numerical advantage is essential for the U.S. Navy. However, China’s shipbuilding capabilities have surged, leaving the U.S. struggling to keep pace. The keyword “Growing gap: U.S. falls behind China in submarine production” highlights an issue that could reshape future maritime power dynamics.

China’s Shipbuilding Surge

China’s naval shipbuilding power is nothing short of staggering. With a shipbuilding ratio that outpaces the U.S. by 232-to-1, China is accelerating its production of not only surface ships but also submarines. This immense capacity means that China can expand its fleet at an unprecedented rate. While the U.S. once held undisputed naval superiority, the growing gap is now placing serious strain on the U.S. Navy.

Technology advancements further complement the rapid pace of China’s shipbuilding. China is not only building more vessels but also producing increasingly sophisticated ones, especially in submarines, which are a crucial asset in naval strategy. This technological advance, paired with sheer volume, makes the growing gap – the U.S. falling behind China in submarine production – a pressing concern.

U.S. Submarine Production Slows Down

While China’s shipyards surge ahead, the U.S. is experiencing significant slowdowns in submarine production. Retired U.S. Navy Captain Jerry Hendrix pointed out that submarine production has dropped from two per year to barely one. This shortfall occurs at a time when the Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan calls for three fast-attack submarines and one ballistic missile submarine annually. Meeting these targets seems increasingly unlikely.

This growing gap—the U.S. falling behind China in submarine production—is becoming more evident as the U.S. falls behind in fleet numbers and submarine capabilities. Submarines, known for their stealth, play a critical role in surveillance, deterrence, and combat. Continued lag in submarine production could severely compromise the U.S. Navy’s ability to control contested regions.

Maintenance Bottlenecks Compound the Problem

The problem extends beyond production. The U.S. Navy is also grappling with a lack of dry docks to maintain its existing fleet. According to Hendrix, all available dry docks are operating at full capacity, resulting in delays for essential repairs. This maintenance bottleneck is causing submarines to spend more time waiting for repairs than patrolling the seas. As the growing gap between the U.S. and China in submarine production widens, so too does the strain on maintenance infrastructure.

Submarines waiting for repairs are not ready to respond to global crises. This lack of readiness is a direct threat to U.S. national security. Without urgent investment to expand maintenance capacity, the U.S. Navy will continue to face challenges in maintaining fleet readiness, potentially leaving strategic areas vulnerable.

U.S. Submarine Program in Crisis

The situation is so dire that in September, Representative Ken Calvert called the U.S. submarine program a “crisis.” He pointed to a $17 billion budget overrun and delays of up to three years for key submarine programs. These delays are not just logistical issues but represent critical gaps in U.S. naval capabilities at a time when China and Russia are both expanding their submarine fleets.

Calvert’s remarks reflect the broader concerns within the U.S. defense community. The growing gap: the U.S. falling behind China in submarine production is symptomatic of more profound issues in America’s shipbuilding strategy. The U.S. faces the risk of losing its naval superiority unless it makes significant changes.

The Global Context: China and Russia Advance

While the U.S. struggles with budget overruns and production delays, China and Russia are modernising their submarine fleets. For China, expanding its naval capabilities is a key part of its broader strategy to project power in the Indo-Pacific. China designs its new submarine investments to challenge the U.S. presence in critical regions like the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, Russia, despite its economic challenges, continues to prioritise submarine development. Submarines remain one of the few areas where Russia retains global leadership, and Moscow’s focus on advancing its underwater fleet underscores their importance in future conflicts. Both countries are capitalising on the growing gap: the U.S. falls behind China in submarine production.

Addressing the Gap: Future Strategies for the U.S. Navy

The U.S. Navy will need more than just increased shipbuilding capacity to address the growing gap: the U.S. falls behind China in submarine production. A comprehensive overhaul of naval strategy is essential. One area that could bridge the gap is the development of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs). These autonomous systems could supplement the existing submarine fleet, providing critical surveillance and combat capabilities without the same production constraints.

Additionally, strengthening alliances with nations like Australia, Japan, and NATO members could distribute the burden of maintaining a strong naval presence. Joint development programmes, technological collaborations, and coordinated patrols could serve as force multipliers, ensuring that the U.S. and its allies can collectively counter rising naval threats.

Conclusion: The Stakes Are High

The growing gap: the U.S. falling behind China in submarine production poses a significant threat to U.S. naval dominance. The U.S. Navy must prioritise not only increasing submarine production but also investing in new technologies and strategies to maintain its edge. Failure to address these challenges could leave the U.S. vulnerable in key regions like the Indo-Pacific and the Arctic, where control over undersea domains will shape the future balance of power.

By investing in both traditional shipbuilding and disruptive technologies, the U.S. can begin to close the gap. The stakes are immense, but with decisive action, the U.S. Navy can preserve its position as a dominant maritime force in the 21st century.