U.S. in Balochistan Secures CPEC and Oil, Reshaping Geopolitics

A Strategic Turning Point in South Asia

The entry of the United States into Balochistan under China’s tacit approval marks one of the most significant geopolitical shifts in the region since the Cold War. For decades, Balochistan was framed as a security liability—plagued by insurgencies, exploited by foreign proxies, and ignored economically. Today, Balochistan is rapidly emerging as the epitome of Pakistan’s geo-economic potential.

The U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC, deters Indian-backed militants related to BLA, balances Iranian pressure, and unlocks long-suppressed oil and rare earth reserves. For Islamabad, this represents not only stability but also unprecedented opportunity, as it suddenly finds itself at the nexus of cooperation between China, Russia, and the United States—all converging on Pakistan’s strategic geography.

Ending the Age of Proxy Warfare

For years, Pakistan accused India of sponsoring separatist groups in Balochistan as part of its covert strategy. These groups frequently targeted pipelines, highways, and CPEC infrastructure, delaying economic projects. The U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC by discouraging such operations. As Washington now shares a stake in regional stability, New Delhi faces quiet but firm pressure through the QUAD alliance not to use proxies against Pakistan.

At the same time, China and Russia, both key members of BRICS, reinforce this stance. Their growing economic presence in Balochistan means they too have no tolerance for disruptions. This rare convergence—QUAD on one side, BRICS on the other—ensures that no major power permits destabilization. The message is clear: no peace means no progress, and no superpower wants to lose its investments.

The U.S. as a Stabiliser in the Backyards of Afghanistan

The U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC but also stabilizes Pakistan’s western frontier. Together with China, Washington now sits on Afghanistan’s backdoor, determined to prevent Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgents from sabotaging Pakistani assets. This unprecedented cooperation extends into intelligence: American, Chinese, Russian, and Pakistani services are quietly coordinating to suppress extremist threats.

For Pakistan, this coordination is revolutionary. It transforms the Afghan border from a constant liability into a jointly managed security frontier. It is a pragmatic arrangement for the U.S. and China, ensuring that militant violence does not threaten their trade corridors and investments.

Unlocking Oil Long Suppressed by Gulf Pressure

Oil in Balochistan is not a new discovery. Geological surveys dating back decades confirmed reserves, but political pressure kept them untapped. Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, lobbied against Pakistan developing its oil wealth. Their reasoning was simple: if Pakistan became a significant oil producer, global prices per barrel would decline, cutting into Gulf profits.

This lobbying discouraged international oil firms from investing. Without foreign expertise, Pakistan lacked the technical capacity to extract reserves itself. Thus, its resources lay dormant while Islamabad continued importing expensive oil from the Gulf.

The U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC but also breaks this deadlock. With American technology and capital, Pakistan can finally exploit its oil wealth. The irony is stark: the very “brotherly” Gulf allies who extended bailouts to Pakistan were also those ensuring its energy dependence.

Rare Earth Minerals: A New Geoeconomic Front

Beyond hydrocarbons, Balochistan is believed to contain large deposits of rare earth minerals, including lithium and copper—resources critical for electric vehicles, advanced electronics, and modern weapons systems. The U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC while also positioning Pakistan as a supplier to future global industries.

China already dominates rare earth supply chains. If American firms start extracting minerals in Pakistan, Islamabad will be in a unique position to balance its interests. For once, Islamabad will have the opportunity to capitalize on the competition between Washington and Beijing, instead of succumbing to either’s pressure.

Gwadar and Chabahar: Complementary Gateways

Traditionally, Gwadar (Pakistan) and Chabahar (Iran) were viewed as rival ports. But the U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC and creates the space for complementarity. A stable Pakistan, unpressured by Iran at the border, allows both ports to serve as twin gateways for Central Asia.

Landlocked states such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will be able to export electricity and gas through CPEC pipelines and ship goods via Gwadar and Chabahar. This twin-port system reduces their dependence on Russian routes and enhances Pakistan’s importance as the indispensable transit hub for energy and trade.

Russian Oil and the “Trump Prophecy”

The U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC, but it also creates opportunities for regional energy flows previously unimaginable. Russian oil, for example, is now expected to move to India through CPEC corridors.

This development recalls former President Donald Trump’s remark that someday Pakistan would export oil to India. While dismissed at the time, the prophecy seems to be turning into reality—with Pakistan positioned as the indispensable middleman in South Asia’s energy map.

For Moscow, the attraction is clear: access to “warm waters,” a Cold War-era dream. Recent Russian investments in Pakistan’s energy and economic sectors underscore its seriousness. For India, the irony is striking—its dependence on Pakistan’s geography for energy transit will grow, even as it remains a BRICS and QUAD member.

Superpower Convergence in Pakistan’s Favour

What makes the U.S. presence in Balochistan extraordinary is the convergence of three great powers—the United States, China, and Russia—around Pakistan. Each has different motivations, yet all find stability in Balochistan essential:

• The U.S. wants secure oil and rare earth supply chains.
• China needs CPEC to safeguard its Belt and Road flagship.
• Russia seeks long-dreamed-of access to warm waters.

This convergence positions Pakistan as a unique geopolitical advantage. No matter the era—Cold War, post-9/11, or today—Pakistan’s geography forces superpowers to engage with it.

The U.S.’s presence in Balochistan not only secures the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) but also underscores Islamabad’s enduring appeal to global powers, making it indispensable to their strategic calculations.

India’s Waning Strategic Value

The U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC while quietly downgrading India’s importance. Washington has realized that India is no match for China militarily. Operation Sindoor, which demonstrated China’s overwhelming edge, underscored this reality. For the U.S., propping up India as a counterweight is now less appealing.

Instead, Pakistan—with its proven ability to deter India—offers Washington a more cost-effective partner. This reassessment relieves China, which no longer fears unchecked U.S.–India military alignment, and reassures Pakistan that its role is once again central to American strategy.

Benefits to Pakistan

The cumulative gains for Pakistan are profound:

• Pakistan has achieved energy independence through the extraction of oil and gas.
• The country has undergone economic transformation through the creation of jobs, the development of infrastructure, and the export of minerals.
• As a transit hub for CAS electricity, gas, and trade, it holds significant regional influence.
• Strategic leverage exists between the U.S., China, and Russia.
• The combined intelligence pressure checks the TTP proxies, ensuring security consolidation.

In short, the U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC and finally allows Pakistan to unlock its long-denied potential.

Conclusion: From Battleground to Crown Jewel

For decades, Balochistan was viewed as Pakistan’s most troubled province—plagued by insurgency, ignored in development, and suppressed geopolitically by so-called allies. Today, it is re-emerging as the engine of Pakistan’s prosperity and the focal point of global superpower interest.

With Beijing’s approval, the U.S. presence in Balochistan secures CPEC, deters proxies, unlocks oil and rare earth minerals, and positions Pakistan as the indispensable link between Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia. Add Russia’s desire for warm waters, America’s quest for stability, and China’s reliance on Gwadar, and the conclusion becomes clear: Pakistan is once again at the center of world power politics.

The geopolitical map of Pakistan is not just a blessing of geography. It is the reason why, no matter the era, no matter the time, Islamabad remains a superpower, sweetheart.

References

• U.S. to explore cooperation with Pakistan on critical minerals, hydrocarbons—Reuters, 14 August 2025
  https://reut.rs/3ZcPECb
• U.S. designates Baloch separatists as a terror group over role in attacks in Pakistan – AP News, 12 August 2025
  https://apnews.com/article/8d4c6ceca522ffb6c52ece98b2597ff7
• After taking $60 billion from China, Pakistan offers critical mineral assets in Balochistan to U.S. during Asim Munir–Trump Economic Times,  Times, 2025
  https://bit.ly/3CPECdeal
• What went wrong with Pakistan’s Dubai? Inside the Chinese initiative that is prompting terror attacks—The Guardian, 26 January 2025
  https://theguardian.com/pak-dubai